An internal poll shows congressional candidate Austin Rogers with a slight lead on Keith Gross as the Republican Primary nears. The poll, conducted for Rogers’ campaign, suggests a two-person race on the GOP side in Florida’s 2nd Congressional District.
The survey, conducted by Guidant Polling and Strategy, shows 21% of likely Republican Primary voters favor Rogers, a former U.S. Senate staff counsel, while 17% plan to vote for Gross, an attorney and former U.S. Senate candidate. Rogers’ lead falls within the poll’s 4.9% margin of error.
“Austin Rogers enters the final weeks of the primary in the driver’s seat with a lead and clear momentum,” a polling memo reads. “His lead grows if you look at President (Donald) Trump’s base, those that approve of the President and evangelical voters (70% of primary electorate).”
The poll was conducted July 29 to 31. It found 9% support Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power while 8% favor Gulf County Superintendent Jim Norton. About 5% like Purple Heart veteran Luke Murphy while 2% support retired Walton County Chief Deputy Audie Rowell and 1% like veteran Lee Jones. The poll found no significant support for Jefferson County businessman Nick Lewis.
The poll also found the more voters have learned about candidates, the more they like Rogers and the less they like Gross. That has impacted the race since March, when the pollster first found Gross with 16% support, Norton with 9%, Power at 4% and Rogers at only 3%.
In terms of likability, around 35% of voters have a favorable view of Rogers and 8% have an unfavorable opinion. In comparison, 35% now have an unfavorable view of Gross while just 26% have a favorable opinion, putting that candidate underwater.
Pollsters also suggest that one national figure could deliver a kill shot and win the race for Rogers, namely President Donald Trump.
“If President Trump were to endorse Austin in the final weeks of this race, his lead would grow substantially,” the polling memo states. “Everything points towards Austin Rogers heading towards a victory in the FL-02 Republican Primary, but President Trump’s endorsement would seal the deal.”
About 22% of likely Primary voters say Trump’s endorsement would make them more likely to support the President’s preferred candidate, while said it would make them less likely to do so.
Among likely Primary voters who self-identify as “Trump’s strongest supporters,” Rogers leads Gross 23% to 17%, while 9% support Power, 8% favor Norton, 4% back Murphy and 3% prefer Rowell.
Rogers has also run as a strong social conservative, and among evangelicals, he boasts a 22% to 15% lead to Gross, while 10% like Power, 8% Norton, 4% Murphy and 3% Rowell.
But the poll also shows more than a third of voters remain in play. About 38% of likely Primary voters told pollsters they remain undecided ahead of the Aug. 18 Primary, including 37% of evangelicals and 35% of Trump supporters.
FL-02 Polling Memo – July 2026 (2) by Jacob Ogles
