EXCLUSIVE: The Department of Homeland Security lambasted Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and the state’s refusal to cooperate with ICE after an illegal immigrant convicted of child sexual abuse was released from jail despite calls for state officials to turn him over to federal authorities.

Both Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson have repeatedly criticized the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement posture, with the mayor comparing President Donald Trump’s America to Jefferson Davis’ Confederacy.

Johnson has accused Trump of “declar[ing] war on Chicago” and using DHS as a “private, militarized, occupying force,” while pledging to fight them in the streets, the legislature and the judiciary. The state operates under the Illinois TRUST Act, a law championed by Springfield Democrats and signed by former Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner that prohibits the use of state and local resources for most civil immigration enforcement purposes.

“Governor Pritzker continues to refuse to do his job to protect his citizens from illegal alien crime and instead chooses to smear our law enforcement,” Assistant Secretary Lauren Bis told Fox News Digital.

NOEM, IN ILLINOIS, CALLS OUT GOV. PRITZKER, CHICAGO’S MAYOR OVER THEIR HANDLING OF CRIMINAL ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS

“Where is the investigation into his own policies that allowed this pedophile to be released from jail and be loose in Illinois communities?” she added of the Hyatt Hotels heir and potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate.

Bis called on Pritzker to “end this insanity and stop releasing pedophiles into our communities.”

DHS told Fox News Digital exclusively that ICE officers went to Chicago and arrested Guatemalan national Erik Giovanni-Quiroa, who had been released from jail after his ICE detainer was ignored following a conviction for aggravated sexual abuse of a five-year-old child.

DUFFY GIVES ILLINOIS 30-DAY ULTIMATUM AFTER AUDIT FINDS 1 IN 5 NONCITIZEN TRUCK LICENSES ISSUED ILLEGALLY

Giovanni-Quiroa, who also had a 2011 firearm-battery conviction, was given a three-year sentence on the pedophilia charge but ICE instead encountered him on the streets.

Last week, ICE conducted a targeted vehicle stop and arrested Giovanni-Quiroa after his detainer was denied, forcing agents to locate him themselves.

Officials said Giovanni-Quiroa refused to stop and briefly fled before being placed in federal custody.

Bis said “sanctuary” politicians in Illinois and elsewhere continue to wrongly protect criminal illegal immigrants and allow them to reoffend and perpetrate additional crimes against Americans.

ICE previously called on Illinois law enforcement to begin honoring ICE detainers, as Director Todd Lyons wrote to Attorney General Kwame Raoul noting that DHS says more than 4,000 illegal immigrants are in state custody.

Giovanni-Quiroa illegally entered the U.S. under the second Bush administration and has been essentially a beneficiary of the aforementioned TRUST Act.

In the heat of “Operation: Midway Blitz” in June, Raoul published a memo reiterating key provisions of the law as a “refresher for Illinois law enforcement agencies.”

“It is important to note, however, that although the Illinois TRUST Act prevents the use of state and local resources for civil immigration enforcement purposes, it does not prevent law enforcement officers from taking action to maintain peace and ensure public safety within their jurisdiction,” Raoul wrote.

“Although some provisions of federal immigration statutes are criminal, deportation and removability are matters of civil law, not criminal law [and] whether an individual is lawfully present in the United States is a question of federal civil immigration law.”

Fox News Digital reached out to Raoul for comment on the current case, as well as Pritzker and Johnson.

When Rauner signed the TRUST Act in 2017, he said it would “continue Illinois’ history of welcoming immigrants and help law enforcement focus on stopping violent crime and protecting Illinois residents.”

In that statement, Rauner also cited a federal court decision from the Chicago-based Northern District of Illinois in which an Obama-appointed judge whom President Joe Biden later promoted to an appeals court found flaws in ICE’s detainer process.

Judge John Z. Lee said in his 2019 order in Jimenez-Moreno v. Napolitano that immigration detainer orders exceeded DHS’ statutory authority but he also acknowledged a Philadelphia federal court ruling that ICE detainer requests do not violate the Tenth Amendment as alleged.

The post DHS scorches Pritzker’s ‘sanctuary’ state after child rapist on ICE detainer released appeared first on Seaside Success Stories.

A political firestorm erupted this week after a Washington, D.C., internal police email appeared to reprimand rank-and-file officers for body camera footage allegedly showing them “finess[ing]” their way out of making arrests on reasonable grounds.

The news comes as the Trump administration cracks down on crime in the District of Columbia at the federal level. While crime rates have steadily declined from a peak in 2023, the nation’s capital continues to suffer per-capita violent crime at higher rates than the national average, according to FBI data.

The Metropolitan Police Department confirmed to Fox News Digital that its brass had rescinded an email sent by the captain for Sector 2 of the Sixth Police District, which covers areas north of Marion Barry Avenue and east of the John Philip Sousa Bridge.

“We are seeing more and more BWCs [body-worn cameras] where officers are not making arrests where probable cause or RAS [reasonable amount of suspicion] is apparent. This is leading to complaints to IAD (internal affairs division) and OPC, and it is also leaving victims and complainants unprotected by the police,” wrote Capt. Jerome Merrill.

CRIME-RIDDEN BLUE CITIES STRUGGLE TO COMBAT SHRINKING POLICE FORCES AS FEDS STEP IN TO CLEAN UP CHAOS

Merrill’s letter, first obtained by Washington’s CBS affiliate, said the situation is getting many police officials in trouble for failing to recognize or correct classifications of interactions with the public.

“Please do not try and finesse your way out of an arrest it is not worth the consequences I assure you,” the memo said, urging police to make arrests or apply for warrants before detectives need to follow up on them.

The department told Fox News Digital the information in the email was “incorrect” and that MPD is investigating.

Asked about the situation and whether arrests can be made on reasonable suspicion in any context, former Supreme Court Chief of Police Ross Swope told Fox News Digital that the distinction is “not only typical of most departments, it is the law.”

Swope, who served for decades with the MPD and later wrote texts on police ethics and internal operations, said probable cause requires more than reasonable suspicion.

“It requires a higher degree of certainty,” he said. “[Probable cause] is when the facts and circumstances within an officer’s knowledge would lead a reasonable person to believe that a crime has been committed for which a summary arrest may be permitted.”

DC MAYOR REPORTS ‘GREAT MEETING’ WITH TRUMP AFTER PAST PUBLIC FEUDS, TOUTS ‘COMMON GROUND’ ON NATION’S CAPITAL

He said Merrill may have viewed body cams and believed in his own view that arrests should have been made, but that he was wrong to instruct officers to make arrests based solely on reasonable suspicion.

Fox News Digital also reached out to the D.C. Police Union for comment but did not receive a response.

But Union President Gregg Pemberton told the CBS affiliate after the fact that he essentially, independently, agreed with Swope.

“The Union has reviewed Captain Merrill’s email and determined that the reason that our members are not making arrests based on reasonable articulable suspicion is because that’s illegal,” Pemberton told the outlet.

“We would expect a captain of a police patrol district to know that, but unfortunately, this command staff official has proven himself uninformed and incapable of managing police operations in the District of Columbia,” he added.

The post DC police captain cites bodycam footage of officers not making arrests, sparking backlash appeared first on Seaside Success Stories.

Katie Wilson, Seattle’s new self-proclaimed socialist mayor, sparked a social media firestorm after she gave her take on reports that millionaires are fleeing Washington state due to taxes and various far-left policies.

While speaking at a forum at Seattle University earlier this month, the new Democratic mayor said, “I think the claims that millionaires are going to leave our state are like super overblown.”

“And the ones that leave, like, bye,” she continued, waving her hand and laughing. Though the line drew laughs and applause from those in the auditorium, it did not go over as well online, as conservatives quickly blasted the new Seattle mayor.

“Seattle’s Socialist Mayor responds to exodus of wealth from Washington State by saying “BYE” … then laughing. We’re doomed,” wrote Brandi Kruse.

MAMDANI’S RACIAL EQUITY PLAN A HIDDEN ‘MOVING THE GOALPOSTS’ PLOY TO JUSTIFY MASSIVE GOV EXPANSION: EXPERT

Kruse’s post has been seen over 4 million times on social media as of Friday morning.

Popular conservative account “End Wokeness” also posted on X, writing, “Mayor Wilson seems to welcome the idea of a wealth exodus from Seattle. This is the FA part. FO coming soon.”

“Enjoy, Seattle,” Fox News contributor Guy Benson posted on X.

SOCIALIST MAYOR-ELECT REVEALS WHY SHE EMBRACED HER PARENTS GIVING HER MONEY AS A 43-YEAR-OLD

“What do socialists think happens when the most productive, highest revenue driving members of their tax base leave their jurisdictions?” Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts posted on X.

“Socialists are driven by hate for the rich, not concern for the poor,” Manhattan Institute scholar Daniel Di Martino posted on X.

“This is the reaction of a spoiled child whose parents paid her bills up until the point that she became mayor… She has no grasp of reality or economics,” comedian Tim Young posted on X. “Seattle is extra cooked.”

Discovery Institute Senior Journalism Fellow Jonathan Choe posted on X, “Seattle, you voted for this.”

“This clip will live in infamy,” the Washington State Republican Party posted on X. “@MayorofSeattle Katie Wilson is not only unfit to be mayor, she lacks grace and gratitude. Perhaps, she’s the one who should leave #Seattle.”

Fox News Digital reached out to Wilson’s office for comment.

Wilson shocked many political observers when she was elected Seattle’s mayor last year, and many chalked up her victory to her ability to tap into a similar voting bloc that socialist Zohran Mamdani used on his way to becoming New York City’s next mayor.

Earlier this month, Fox News Digital reported on city advocates who say they are struggling to find solutions as homelessness and open-air drug use spread across Seattle’s streets, amid growing concerns about the direction of Wilson’s new administration.

“You can just see the foil is like blowing down the sidewalks like autumn leaves,” Andrea Suarez, founder and executive director of We Heart Seattle, told Fox News Digital in an interview. 

“Very common to see property damage of our parks and shared spaces. You can see Narcan is used to reverse an overdose, so you’ll see cartridges. But at least we’re remodeling the bathroom to be gender-neutral. I’m not [kidding] you, that’s where our priorities are.” 

Fox News Digital’s Nikolas Lanum and Rachel Del Guidice contributed to this report.

The post Socialist mayor’s blunt 1-word message to fleeing millionaires sparks outrage: ‘We’re doomed’ appeared first on Seaside Success Stories.

FIRST ON FOX: Minnesota Republican lawmaker Kristin Robbins, chair of the House Fraud Prevention and State Agency Oversight Committee, announced on Friday she is ending her gubernatorial campaign to replace embattled Gov. Tim Walz.

“It was not a tough decision to get into the race 10 months ago,” Robbins exclusively told Fox News Digital. “We could not allow Tim Walz to have a third term in Minnesota. He’s destroyed our state, and we had to stop him, and so, I think I made a great case for that, and because of all my work on the fraud committee he got out nine months ahead of schedule, which is great.”

Robbins continued, “Once Senator Klobuchar became sort of the anointed candidate to replace him, I just think the establishment kind of circled the wagons and, you know, it became a challenging endeavor, and I’m a realist, and I am a numbers person, and when I look at the math, I don’t see a path for me to win.”

Weeks after Walz dropped his re-election bid in January amid a massive fraud scandal that unfolded during his watch, Sen. Amy Klobuchar jumped into the race, bringing her deep political backing and name recognition with her as the presumptive nominee for the Democrats.

MINNESOTA LAWMAKERS UNLOAD ON WALZ’S ‘LEGACY’ AFTER HE TOUTS FRAUD RECORD IN FINAL ADDRESS: ‘RIDICULOUS’

Robbins told Fox News Digital she determined it was better to “bow out” and find a “new way to contribute” due to love of her state and the realization that there are “many ways to serve.”

In terms of what’s next, Robbins says she hasn’t had the time to give that much thought but said she is focused on closing out the current legislative session and said “there’s a lot of big things going on in the front committee.”

“I know where the bodies are buried,” Robbins said about the fraud situation, pointing out that there is much more work to be done to get answers on how the billions of dollars in fraud was allowed to go unchecked for so long.

MN LAWMAKER TAKES ACTION TO GET ANSWERS ON OMAR’S ALLEGED FRAUD TIES AFTER SHE SKIPS KEY HEARING: ‘GHOSTED US’

With Robbins exiting the race, the Republicans vying to win the gubernatorial primary include Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth, healthcare executive Kendall Qualls, MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell and several other lesser known candidates.

Robbins told Fox News Digital she will “not be endorsing anyone.”

“That will be up to the voters to decide, and I wish all the other candidates well,” Robbins said.

Ultimately, Robbins says her “overwhelming thought” is “gratitude” when she looks back on her campaign.

“I am so grateful for the last ten months of going all over the state meeting Minnesotans from every walk of life and to have had the privilege to run for governor and meet all these amazing people and hear their stories, be inspired by what they want for Minnesota,” Robbins said. “I am just so grateful and so privileged.”

Robbins says that going forward, the “answers” are not going to come from the capitol in St. Paul, but rather “from the communities and from the people” and she “looks forward to plugging into that.”

The post MN governor race to replace Walz sees major shakeup as GOP contender ends campaign: ‘Don’t see a path’ appeared first on Seaside Success Stories.

With President Donald Trump “hired” by the American people for a second term, Amazon — which now owns production rights to NBC’s “The Apprentice” — is looking for a new host to potentially reboot the once No. 1-rated television program, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Trump leveraged decades of media coverage as a New York mogul amid the ups and downs of the 1980s and 1990s into a smash-hit program that premiered in 2004, following several wannabe business executives through a several-week “job interview” to work for the Trump Organization.

Fifteen seasons and a presidency-compelled hiatus later, Amazon is reportedly considering Trump Organization Executive Vice President Donald Trump Jr. for the role, as the eldest son has served as a frequent stand-in “boardroom adviser” for Trump executives Carolyn Kepcher and George Ross.

Trump addressed rumors of a reboot on Thursday, telling Fox News’ Peter Doocy that his son is a “good guy” and would “probably be good” in the role.

JIMMY KIMMEL JOKES TRUMP SHOULD LET HIM HOST WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENTS’ DINNER TO ‘THINK OF THE RATINGS’

“He’s got a little charisma going. You need a little charisma for that sucker. So, we’ll see what happens,” Trump said.

Several people familiar with the discussions told The Wall Street Journal that Amazon executives have internally discussed casting Trump Jr. as a host for an “Apprentice” reboot if they do indeed launch the project.

The Journal reported Amazon has not yet approached Trump Sr., Trump Jr. or any Trump family members, but that, instead of NBC, it would air the show on Amazon Prime.

A source close to Trump Jr. told Fox News Digital on Thursday that the Journal report was indeed the first time the 48-year-old father of five had heard his name was in the pot.

Fox News Digital also reached out to the Trump Organization for comment, as well as Amazon and Amazon’s production company.

An Amazon spokesperson told the Journal that the Jeff Bezos-led company previously acquired MGM, which itself bought a majority stake in reality-show impresario Mark Burnett’s company several years earlier.

TRUMP’S KENNEDY CENTER HONORS OVERHAUL DELIVERS STAR-STUDDED LINEUP, NEW MEDALLION AND HISTORIC HOSTING ROLE

Burnett has launched several reality shows, including “The Apprentice” and CBS-aired contests “The Amazing Race” and “Survivor,” with the latter now in its 50th season. The credits for “The Apprentice” list Trump Sr. as executive producer.

A reboot would be Amazon’s second foray into Trumpworld in recent months, as it recently debuted a $40 million biopic of first lady Melania Trump that drew praise from supporters and mockery from critics like ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel.

“Melania” was directed by Brett Ratner of “Rush Hour” fame, as Trump reportedly pressed Paramount Pictures to revive the Jackie Chan-Chris Tucker series and put Ratner back at the helm, according to CNBC, which further reported the original New Line Cinema films are now subject to a distribution pact between Paramount and New Line parent Warner Bros.

Trump Sr. regularly touted his “Apprentice” success throughout his political tenure, once telling the National Prayer Breakfast that attendees should “pray” for former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger after the “Terminator” took over the show and oversaw what the president called a ratings collapse.

KIMMEL FIRES BACK AT TRUMP’S DEMAND TO TAKE HIM OFF THE AIR, SAYS ‘I’LL GO WHEN YOU GO’

Schwarzenegger, the most recent Republican to serve as governor in Sacramento, occasionally spars with Trump, as he is seen as less bombastic and more politically moderate than the president.

“Hey Donald, I have a great idea,” Schwarzenegger shot back at Trump in an X video at the time.

“Why don’t we switch jobs — you take over TV — since you’re such an expert in ratings, and I take over your job so that people can finally sleep comfortable again — hmm?” the Austria native, who voted for then-Ohio Gov. John Kasich in 2016, quipped.

Fox News Digital reached out to NBCUniversal for additional comment on the potential resurrection of their onetime series. Neither Amazon nor the Trump Organization responded by publication time.

Fox News Digital’s Janelle Ash contributed to this report.

The post Amazon explores ‘The Apprentice’ reboot with Trump Jr set for promotion: report appeared first on Seaside Success Stories.

Trump coin can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 3.2900 – the breakout of which can lead to the next resistance level 3.5000.

• Trump reversed from the strong support level 2.7330
• Likely to rise to resistance level 3.2900

Trump coin recently reversed up from the support zone between the strong support level 2.7330 (which stopped previous wave (B) at the start of March as can be seen from the daily Trump coinchart below) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous minor correction 2 – which belongs to the medium-term impulse wave (C) – which started from the same support level at the start of  March.

Given the strength of the aforementioned support level 2.7330, oversold daily Stochastic, the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic and the bullish sentiment seen across the cryptocurrency markets, Trump coin can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 3.2900 – the breakout of which can lead to the next resistance level 3.5000.

The subject matter and the content of this article are solely the views of the author. FinanceFeeds does not bear any legal responsibility for the content of this article and they do not reflect the viewpoint of FinanceFeeds or its editorial staff.

The information does not constitute advice or a recommendation on any course of action and does not take into account your personal circumstances, financial situation, or individual needs. We strongly recommend you seek independent professional advice or conduct your own independent research before acting upon any information contained in this article.

The post Trump Coin Bounces : Bulls Eye 3.29 Breakout, 15 April, 2026 appeared first on Seaside Success Stories.

Geopolitical tension and energy volatility drive market uncertainty, as central banks balance inflation risks against fragile growth and diplomatic hopes.

The High-Stakes Balancing Act: Diplomacy and the Dollar

The global financial landscape is currently caught in a tug-of-war between high-stakes diplomacy and the cold realities of geopolitical tension. While optimistic signals from Washington and the United Nations suggest a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran could be on the horizon, the market remains on edge. The specter of military reinforcements and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz serve as a stark reminder that stability is far from guaranteed. For currency traders, this uncertainty has transformed the U.S. Dollar into a primary barometer of fear; any flicker of escalation reinforces the Greenback’s safe-haven status, while signs of a “diplomatic off-ramp” fuel the risk-on rallies that recently pushed the Euro to six-week highs.

Energy Volatility: The Shadow Over Central Bank Policy

Crude oil has emerged as the invisible hand guiding interest rate expectations, creating a “cloud” over the path of major central banks. The direct correlation between energy prices and monetary policy is now undeniable, with analysts estimating that every ten-dollar jump in oil prices adds roughly 25 basis points to market-implied rate hike projections. This surge is breathing life into the threat of stagflation—a toxic cocktail of slowing growth and stubborn, supply-driven inflation. For the ECB and the Bank of England, this creates a policy trap: the need to combat energy-driven price spikes suggests a hawkish stance, yet the underlying fragility of the European and UK economies makes aggressive tightening increasingly risky.

Policy Divergence and the Data-Dependent Consolidation

As the initial fervor of the spring risk rally fades, the market is entering a period of sober consolidation defined by diverging central bank narratives. In the United States, softer-than-expected PPI data has provided the Federal Reserve with a convenient window to remain “on hold,” tempering the immediate need for further tightening and capping the Dollar’s recovery. Conversely, the Euro’s momentum has stalled below the 1.1800 handle as investors realize that the ECB may be forced to pivot away from its hawkish rhetoric to protect domestic growth. This shift highlights a market no longer trading on momentum alone, but rather on a granular, data-dependent evaluation of which central bank will be the first to blink in the face of a slowing global economy.

Top upcoming economic events:

Wednesday, April 15

04/15/2026 — BoE’s Governor Bailey Speech (GBP) As the head of the Bank of England, Governor Bailey’s remarks are scrutinized for hints regarding interest rate shifts. Given current concerns over UK growth and inflation linked to energy prices, any hawkish or dovish lean in his tone can cause significant volatility for the Pound Sterling.

04/15/2026 — RBNZ’s Breman Speech (NZD) High-impact communications from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand often signal changes in the local monetary landscape. Investors look for guidance on how the RBNZ plans to manage the New Zealand Dollar amidst fluctuating global risk sentiment and commodity price swings.

04/15/2026 — ECB’s President Lagarde Speech (EUR) President Christine Lagarde’s speeches are pivotal for the Euro. With markets currently debating whether the ECB will hike rates in June, her commentary on “data dependency” and the impact of volatile oil prices on the Eurozone’s recovery is a top priority for traders.

Thursday, April 16

04/16/2026 — Unemployment Rate s.a. (AUD) The Australian labor market remains a key pillar for the RBA’s policy decisions. A lower-than-expected unemployment rate usually strengthens the Australian Dollar, as it suggests economic resilience and potentially higher domestic inflation.

04/16/2026 — Gross Domestic Product YoY (CNY) As a major engine of global growth, China’s GDP data has a massive ripple effect. A strong reading typically boosts “risk-on” currencies like the AUD and NZD, while a slowdown can trigger global recession fears and support safe havens like the USD.

04/16/2026 — Retail Sales YoY (CNY) This event measures the strength of Chinese consumer spending. It is a vital indicator of whether China’s domestic economy is successfully transitioning and recovering, providing essential context for global trade dynamics and commodity demand.

04/16/2026 — Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices YoY (EUR) This is the preferred inflation gauge for the ECB. It excludes volatile items like food and energy, offering a “cleaner” look at underlying price pressures in the Eurozone. A high reading would increase the pressure on the ECB to maintain a hawkish stance despite growth risks.

04/16/2026 — Initial Jobless Claims (USD) This weekly indicator provides the most current snapshot of the U.S. labor market’s health. In the context of the Fed’s “higher for longer” debate, any significant spike in claims could lead to a quick sell-off in the Dollar as traders price in an earlier pivot to rate cuts.

Friday, April 17

04/17/2026 — IMF Meeting (USD) The International Monetary Fund meetings involve high-level discussions between global finance ministers and central bankers. Statements regarding global growth forecasts (currently under pressure from energy shocks) and systemic financial risks can shift long-term market trends.

04/17/2026 — BoE’s Breeden Speech (GBP) Closing out the week, Sarah Breeden’s insights provide further clarity on the Bank of England’s internal consensus. Following earlier data releases in the week, her perspective on the UK’s economic prospects and the potential for stagflation will be key for the Pound’s weekly close. 

The subject matter and the content of this article are solely the views of the author. FinanceFeeds does not bear any legal responsibility for the content of this article and they do not reflect the viewpoint of FinanceFeeds or its editorial staff.

The information does not constitute advice or a recommendation on any course of action and does not take into account your personal circumstances, financial situation, or individual needs. We strongly recommend you seek independent professional advice or conduct your own independent research before acting upon any information contained in this article.

The post Diplomatic “Off-Ramp” Hopes and Soft PPI Data… appeared first on Seaside Success Stories.

The S&P 500 is once again within striking distance of its all-time high. And this despite the fact that the Iran conflict remains unresolved, that oil prices continue to fuel inflation, and that hopes for lower interest rates have thus evaporated rather abruptly. One is quite justified in asking how this actually fits together.

Putting emotions and logic aside, our indicators remain bullish, even though the US indices have already gained around 10% since the low at the end of March. After such a sharp rally, consolidations are of course possible at any time. Yet investors are currently accumulating US stocks with a determination rarely seen before. The «Smart Investors Action», which measures the largely hidden transactions of major investors behind the scenes, makes exactly this visible: The light blue area lies deep in the positive zone.

With these massive gains, sentiment on Wall Street is also brightening again. But market sentiment has only just returned to the optimistic zone—and experience shows that this is precisely where the biggest gains often occur.

As already highlighted in the last two issues of Pretiorates’ Thoughts, stocks from cyclical, economically sensitive sectors continue to be favored. Investors are behaving as if the U.S. economy were on the verge of a new upswing…

In contrast, defensive stocks—that is, those stocks investors turn to during economically challenging periods—have served their purpose for now. One example is companies in the utilities sector, which can demonstrate relatively stable business performance even during downturns. In any case, the ratio between the S&P 500 and the utilities sector signals that Wall Street is likely anticipating further price increases.

Another intriguing indicator is the «Happy Friday Indicator», a somewhat unorthodox but by no means unappealing tool: If investors head into Friday evening in good spirits after a successful week, their risk appetite usually increases in the following week. If this happens too often, investors become careless, which is why the indicator functions almost perfectly as a counter-indicator. Recently, however, nervousness before and during the weekend has generally been high for well-known reasons. This extreme risk-off sentiment caused the indicator to drop to its lowest level in recent years—and that is precisely why several buy signals are now flashing…

We also mentioned in the last two issues that we are focusing on the AI and Quantum sectors in this new Wall Street upswing. A great deal is currently happening in the field of quantum computing, even though Wall Street has so far reacted rather cautiously. Nvidia has just launched the first chip for quantum computers. Google, for its part, recently announced that «Q-Day» is expected as early as 2029. This term refers to the hypothetical point in time when quantum computers will be commercially available or powerful enough to break today’s standard cryptographic encryption methods such as RSA or ECC. Just imagine what AI might be capable of when combined with the computing power of such quantum computers…

Even though we’re supposedly only three years away from it, investors are currently focusing primarily on AI stocks, which have already reached a new all-time high. Our AI index has already hit a new all-time high. But here, too, the «after-hours action» has only just returned to positive territory. This suggests that this rally should continue for much longer…

Many investors have also been following the debacle of software stocks since the start of the year. At first glance, these stocks now appear very cheap and could certainly tempt one to buy. We are nevertheless staying away from them. If AI is currently good for anything truly productive, it is for writing or programming software code. The problem for software companies is not even primarily that they themselves could be replaced by AI—which we do not really expect. But AI is likely to replace a great many software users, which is why software companies will probably sell significantly fewer licenses in the future…

Artificial intelligence will massively change our lives in the coming years. All the more so when it is combined with the computing power of quantum computers. Accordingly, the relevant tech stocks are likely to continue driving Wall Street higher in the medium and long term.

Is there another reason why the U.S. economy might be on the verge of a boom—at least according to the indicators mentioned at the beginning? We find one theory that has been brought to our attention more frequently lately fascinating, not yet truly credible, but certainly alarming: Following the peace negotiations, US President Trump suddenly seized control of the Strait of Hormuz—and blocked it. The longer this situation persists, the greater the problem becomes, especially for Asian countries, as their oil reserves run low. Depending on the country, this could happen between now and mid-June.

For China, this would mean that after Venezuela, Iran might also fall out as an energy supplier. The number of global oil exporters is limited — partly due to a lack of pipelines and inadequate infrastructure. Theoretically, it would thus be conceivable that the U.S. could rise to become a global energy powerhouse and China could suddenly become a buyer of U.S. energy. That would shift the geopolitical balance of power once again. And with them, the US petrodollar could suddenly experience a sort of rebirth. At the moment, however, this theory is still pure speculation. Yet US President Trump has just announced that an above-average number of empty tankers are already on their way to the US. Keep an eye on this development!

The post Pretiorates’ Thoughts 127 – Climbing While the World Wobbles appeared first on Seaside Success Stories.

The main shift that will reshape financial markets for the foreseeable future is the conflict between the US and Iran. This turned out to be not a short-term military event as the US is moving troops for a ground operation. It’s hard to estimate the effects for all instruments, but prices of crude oil futures have held above $100, and that boosts inflation expectations around the world.

The immediate reaction by bond markets to this escalation was the growth of US 30-year Treasury yields and the “flight to safety” regime across all markets. According to CME FedWatch, rates in the US are expected to stay unchanged until the end of the year.

The full impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global trade is yet to be determined, but the risks of cascade effects in different markets are increasing.

Macroeconomic indicators

Have we seen any tectonic shifts in terms of macroeconomic indicators in Q1 2026? We can construct the picture out of three major benchmarks – the NFP indicator (payroll employment), CPI (consumer inflation) and manufacturing PMI (from the Institute of Supply Management).

Payroll employment has shown some slowdown in February, which might not be necessarily a sign of economic slowdown yet, as recessional signals need more time to develop, i.e. two or three consecutive quarters. For now, it might be perceived as seasonal volatility.

The US PMI indicator showed good momentum in January and February, fueled by fiscal stimulus in the US and accompanied by a rally for industrial stocks. Generally, the PMI indicator above 50 displays a robust state of the economy and, in normal conditions, correlates with positive performance for the S&P 500.

Nowadays, given extreme fear in markets, the divergence between indices and PMI might hold for an extended period.

Bitcoin

Current conditions

Bitcoin is no longer trending clearly in either direction but a phase of consolidation following a failed attempt to push higher. Price action reflects this shift clearly, as Bitcoin rallied toward $76,000 before experiencing a two-leg correction down to $67,000, eventually stabilising around $70,000, which in itself signals a loss of momentum and a move toward a more balanced, rangebound structure.

Underlying indicators across spot, derivatives, and on-chain activity suggest that both demand and supply are adjusting, with neither side currently strong enough to dominate, resulting in a market defined by caution, reduced participation, and early signs of stabilisation rather than expansion.

Demand

Demand has softened materially, particularly within spot markets, where declining volume and a sharp drop in ETF inflows indicate that the strong buying pressure seen previously has faded significantly. ETFs’ net inflows collapsed from over $790 million to just $150 million within a week, while trading activity also declined, reflecting a clear pullback in institutional engagement and a broader cooling in participation.

Spot demand is the backbone of sustainable movements. Without it, any upward movement becomes increasingly dependent on thinner liquidity and short-term positioning rather than genuine accumulation. The current environment therefore reflects a market where buyers are still present, but less aggressive and more selective in deploying capital.

Derivative activity reflecting defensive positioning

In derivative markets, the picture reinforces this cautious tone, as open interest has edged slightly lower, while cumulative volume delta (CVD) has flipped negative across both spot and perpetual futures, signalling a shift to sell-side aggression.

Although funding rates have moved back into positive, indicating a modest rebuilding of long exposure, this shift is not strong enough to signal conviction but suggests that traders are cautiously re-entering positions without committing aggressively. This combination of reduced leverage, defensive positioning, and mixed sentiment creates an environment where movements are more likely to be reactive and unstable.

Options market signalling cautious sentiment

The options market further confirms the lack of confidence, as volatility remains subdued and open interest is largely unchanged, pointing to stable but unenthusiastic participation. The increase in delta skew indicates a growing demand for downside protection, meaning that even as panic has not escalated, traders are actively hedging against potential declines.

This behaviour reflects a market that is not fearful, but clearly not confident either, where participants are willing to stay engaged but are simultaneously protecting themselves against downside risk.

On-chain demand remains subdued

On-chain activity adds another layer, showing weak network participation, declining volume, and generally low throughput, all of which point to a lack of strong organic demand. While active addresses have increased slightly, overall activity remains below normal, reinforcing the idea that the market is operating with limited engagement from both retail and institutions.

Taken together, these signals confirm that demand is not absent, but it is clearly insufficient to drive a sustained trend, leaving the market vulnerable to short-term fluctuations rather than long-term directional moves.

Supply

There are increasing signs that sell pressure has started to re-emerge, particularly in the short term, as evidenced by the sharp reversal in CVD across both spot and derivative markets, which indicates that sellers have regained some control after a period of relative balance.

This shift does not yet represent aggressive distribution at scale, but it does signal that the market is no longer supported by dominant buy-side flows, which increases the likelihood of continued consolidation or further downside if demand does not improve.

Long-term holders anchoring market structure

Despite short-term selling pressure, the broader supply structure remains relatively stable, as long-term holders continue to dominate the market, while the share of short-term and highly reactive capital remains subdued. The slight decline in the short-term holder to long-term holder supply ratio, combined with low levels of “hot capital,” suggests that the market is still largely controlled by more patient investors rather than speculative participants.

This dynamic provides a degree of underlying support, as long-term holders are typically less sensitive to short-term movements and less likely to sell aggressively during periods of volatility.

Sentiment remaining in fear

Sentiment from the Fear and Greed Index was mostly unchanged in the first quarter of 2026, with fear dominating overall. This sentiment is clearly shown on the daily chart of Bitcoin, where the price has remained rather muted, trading in a sideways channel for the past couple of months. The anticipation of the Fed holding rates steady at its next meetings in the upcoming quarter remains, and this could be somewhat affecting sentiment for Bitcoin. According to CME FedWatch, the probabilities for the next meetings in April and June are to keep rates unchanged, with over 90% chance in both cases.

Technical view

The price of Bitcoin declined rather aggressively in mid January, losing around 24% in a single month before settling in a sideways range between $65,000 and $75,000 for the past two months. The stochastic oscillator signals oversold while the moving averages validate the overall downtrend. Bollinger Bands are contracted, showing that volatility is low. These point to a continuation of the current consolidation with no major hints of an uptrend going into the second quarter.

The opinions in this article are personal to the writers: they do not represent the opinions of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.

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European currencies continue to move higher, reaching previously targeted levels as demand for both the euro and sterling remains firm. The rally is unfolding amid evolving market expectations and persistent weakness in the US dollar. That said, as prices approach important resistance zones, traders are increasingly cautious, recognising the potential for momentum to ease and price action to stabilise.

Much of the support for the euro and pound stems from anticipation surrounding upcoming economic releases from the UK and the eurozone, which remain central to investor focus. Data on growth and business activity could reshape expectations for central bank policy and influence demand for both currencies. Meanwhile, attention is also firmly on forthcoming US figures, which may shift the current balance and alter expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next steps.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is trading in the 1.1800–1.1830 area, maintaining bullish momentum after its recent breakout. From a technical perspective, further upside towards 1.1900–1.1940 is possible if 1.1800 continues to act as support. However, a pullback towards 1.1740–1.1760 remains a risk, particularly if eurozone data disappoints or US indicators come in stronger than expected.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• today at 13:45 (GMT+3): speech by Bundesbank representative Mauderer;
• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (US);
• today at 19:45 (GMT+3): speech by Bundesbank President Nagel.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is following a similar trajectory, holding near recent highs within an ongoing uptrend. However, a “harami” pattern identified on the daily chart signals a potential pause in the rally. Confirmation of this pattern could trigger a decline towards 1.3480–1.3500. On the upside, a break above 1.3590 may open the way for gains towards 1.3670–1.3700.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• today at 09:00 (GMT+3): UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
• today at 10:55 (GMT+3): UK manufacturing output;
• today at 18:40 (GMT+3): speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor Woods.

Overall, European currencies remain in an advancing phase but are approaching levels that may challenge further upside. Upcoming economic data will be decisive: strong releases could extend the rally, while weaker figures may lead to consolidation or a corrective pullback.

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The post EUR/USD and GBP/USD Extend Gains Ahead of Key Data appeared first on Seaside Success Stories.