Enbridge (TSX:ENB) probably won’t double over the next three years. It may not need to. A stock already yielding roughly 5.5% can produce an attractive return through a considerably less exciting combination of modest growth, rising dividends, and the continued absence of financial catastrophe.
My base case places Enbridge stock near $81 by 2029, up from a recent $70. Add approximately $12.35 per share in dividends over those three years, and the potential total return becomes much more interesting than the share-price forecast alone.
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That $81 estimate
Enbridge stock expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), distributable cash flow per share, and earnings per share (EPS) to grow at an average annual rate of approximately 5% after 2026.
If the share price eventually follows that per-share growth while Enbridge stock’s valuation remains roughly stable, compounding the recent $70.22 price by 5% annually produces a theoretical price of $81.29 after three years.
That isn’t a price target delivered on stone tablets. Interest rates, investor sentiment, and pipeline politics can alter the valuation even when the underlying business performs well. Still, an analyst fair-value estimate near $76 suggests the recent price doesn’t require investors to pay three years of growth in advance.
How it grows
Enbridge stock owns liquids pipelines, natural-gas transmission systems, regulated gas utilities, storage facilities, export infrastructure, and renewable-power assets. Much of its cash flow comes from regulated rates or long-term contracts rather than daily commodity prices, giving this member of the Canadian dividend stock club unusually visible revenue.
Second-quarter distributable cash flow increased to $2.95 billion from $2.90 billion a year earlier. Management maintained 2026 guidance of $5.70 to $6.10 per share, comfortably above the current $3.88 annualized dividend.
The secured project backlog has also reached approximately $41 billion. Line 5 relocation work is expected to enter service in early 2027, while gas-transmission expansions, liquefied-natural-gas connections, and utility investments provide additional growth routes. Pipelines aren’t known for thrilling product launches. Once built and contracted, however, they can keep earning revenue while trendier businesses discover that consumers have moved on.
Dividend put to work
Enbridge stock’s quarterly dividend is currently $0.97, or $3.88 annually. Assuming 3% annual dividend growth, the payment could reach approximately $4.24 per share after three increases. An investor buying near $70.22 would then earn a yield on the original purchase price of roughly 6%.
A $7,000 investment inside a TFSA would purchase 99 full shares for $6,951.78, assuming sufficient contribution room.
Here is how that position could develop if the share price grew 5% annually and the dividend increased by 3%. The calculations exclude dividend reinvestment.
The position could collect approximately $1,223 in dividends during the three years. Combining those payments with the projected share value produces roughly $9,270, or a total return near 33% on the amount invested. That is an illustration, not a promise, and it assumes the dividends aren’t reinvested or taxed.
Bottom line
I think Enbridge stock could trade around $80 to $82 in three years, with the annual dividend approaching $4.24 per share. The path probably won’t be tidy, but investors don’t need spectacular price growth for the stock to work. A 5.5% starting yield, modest business growth, and three more dividend increases could do the heavy lifting quite nicely.
